Sunday, October 19, 2008
weekly Market Update as on 19th Oct 2008

 

Equity Market Update

 
Markets remained volatile in the week. Market opened strong earlier in the week, but giving up all its gains on last day of the week. Sensex was down 5.25% and S&P CNX Nifty also closed 6.27% lower. The fall was led by capital goods and metals sector, while IT sector outperformed the overall market. In fact banking sector has delivered positive returns during the week, outperforming the Nifty by more then 10.5%.
Key Equity Indices

 

Week at
Glance

 

10/13/2008

 

10/14/2008

 

10/15/2008

 

10/16/2008

 

10/17/2008  

Last Week

Week on Week Change %
Sensex

11,309.1

11,483.4

10,809.1

10,581.5

9,975.4

10,527.9

-5.25%
S&P CNX Nifty

3,490.7

3,518.7

3,338.4

3,269.3

3,074.4

3,280.0

-6.27%
BSE IT

2,790.4

2,939.9

2,780.2

2,669.2

2,537.3

2,584.3

-1.82%
BSE PSU

5,815.5

5,758.9

5,555.5

5,494.3

5,235.5

5,536.0

-5.43%
BANKEX

5,973.8

6,038.1

5,841.6

5,866.8

5,546.7

5,319.5

4.27%
  Source :  Bloomberg
Facts & Figures (Rs in Millions)

 

Date

FII Flows in cash mkt

MF Flows in cash mkt

10-Oct-08

-8477

3152

13-Oct-08

-23232

5205

14-Oct-08

-8422

-2631

15-Oct-08

-1891

-3829

16-Oct-08

-8407

4316

 

 Source : SEBI, provisional data
Outlook
US and Global financial turmoil has had its collateral damage on all equity markets including India. Although fundamentally India continues not to be impacted by this, we have seen heightened volatility in India led by loss of confidence in western financial system, poor sentiment & impact of FII outflows. Deleveraging has started happening and has led to poor credit availability in the international markets despite global coordinated efforts by few key central banks in terms of supply of liquidity and rate cuts. Increasingly the world seems to be moving away from inflation scare to growth scare and heading towards a global slowdown.

While a global slowdown will lower our growth as well, we feel that our ‘growth gap’ will remain intact or infact improve over the rest of the world, mainly because of lower input cost for the economy due to lower commodity prices and predominantly domestic nature of our economic growth. While currently we are witnessing FII outflows from India due to so called ‘Risk aversion’, over a longer term we see renewed interest in the structural stories of Asia and India in particular as the concept of ‘Risk aversion’ gets redefined. We expect continued volatility in the Indian market in the short term, though, led by the global financial crisis.  We expect more divergence in sector and stock performances, in a broadly volatile market.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Debt Market Update

 
        International

        Central Bank actions

         

Bank

Action

Benchmark interest rate
Reserve Bank of India

Cash Reserve Ratio decreased

7.50%

6.50%
Chile Central Bank

Rate unchanged

8.25%

8.25%
Peru Central Bank

Rate unchanged

6.50%

6.50%
Bank of Japan

Rate unchanged

0.50%

0.50%
     

         Source: Bloomberg
         Economic Indicators

 

Previous Week

Current Week
US 10 year benchmark treasury

3.81%

3.91%
Crude oil WTI ($/barrel)

82.23

70.52

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

Currency

 

Previous Week

Current Week
INR

48.43

48.88
EUR

1.36

1.34
JPY

98.94

100.85

Source: Bloomberg

Domestic

Liquidity

Call rates range

Previous Week

Current Week
MIBOR range

10.51-16.48

7.00-10.13
LAF amount  average (Rs crore)

-51088

-46580

Source: Bloomberg

Domestic interest rates

Previous Week

Current Week
3 month CP

15.00%

12.50%
91 day T-bill

8.48%

7.75%
5 year OIS

7.23%

6.90%
10 year benchmark gilt

7.83%

7.71%

Source: Bloomberg

RBI action

CRR cut by 100 bps to 6.5% effective from 11th October 2008.

Outlook of the Week

The RBI as well as the Finance Ministry have taken timely steps in order to improve the liquidity situations. The Finance Ministry, in consultation with the RBI, arranged for immediate transfer of Funds in relation to the agricultural debt waiver aggregating Rs 25,000 crore to the Term Lending Institutions. RBI also cut the CRR further by 100 bps with retrospective effect thus releasing a further Rs 40,000 crore into the system. It also increased the interest rates on foreign currency deposits and allowed banks to access capital through their overseas branches. In a related step, the RBI also allowed Mutual Funds to access funds from Banks by placing Certificates of Deposits as collateral. All these steps have resulted in call rates coming down to around 7% levels from around 20% earlier. Money market rates have also eased a bit though the selling pressure still continues as Mutual Funds continue to face redemptions. We believe that easy overnight rates would result in flows becoming normal once again over the next few days. However, one has to watch out for the risk of heavy RBI forex intervention which could once again pressure domestic liquidity.

 
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Thursday, October 9, 2008
Market 8th Oct 2008, Triveni plummeted 15%

 Market in a nutshell

  • Even with the Fed planning on buying unsecured corporate debt, the selling pressure in the global markets did not relent. Although other indices, like Indonesia and Russia, were halted during trading hours, Nifty pulled back more than 200 points from its day’s low (which was almost 300 points from yesterday’s closing). Even developed European markets were deeply negative on opening. After a highly volatile session, Sensex finally closed at 11,328(down 367points) Nifty ended the day at 3,513 (down 94 points)
  • Nifty October futures were trading at a premium of around 25-30 points to spot in the first half of the session but narrowed to around 10-13 points towards the end of the session.
  • BSE FMCG Index plunged 5.2% to 1,947 with United Spirits falling 18% to INR 939 while BSE IT Index crashed 5% to 2,701 with Rolta India down 10.5% to INR 162
  • Market breadth was negative with an Advance: Decline Ratio of 1:7. AuroPharma fell 22% to INR 211 while KFA dropped 17% to INR 44.85.
  • Cash volumes were at INR 179,545 mn (NSE+BSE) as against a 5 DMA of INR 167,445 mn. F&O volumes were at INR 576,669 mn as against a 5 DMA of INR 511,774 mn.

Eye Catchers

  • Triveni plummeted 15% to INR 57 with volumes of 4,285,741 (up 300%).

Market News

  • Rupee depreciated to trade at INR 48.30 against the dollar.
  • Nymex crude was stable at $87.20/bbl. Base metals were trading on a mixed note.

  

Indices performance

CURRENT PREV. %CHANGE
S&P CNX NIFTY

       3,513.65

    3,606.60

-2.58%
CNX NIFTY JUNIOR

       5,165.40

    5,434.75

-4.96%
CNX IT

       2,645.85

    2,806.50

-5.72%
BANK NIFTY

       5,222.60

    5,457.55

-4.31%
CNX 100

       3,305.15

    3,403.85

-2.90%
S&P CNX DEFTY

       2,503.30

    2,596.75

-3.60%
S&P CNX 500

       2,693.90

    2,790.90

-3.48%
CNX MIDCAP

       4,202.60

    4,433.05

-5.20%
NIFTY MIDCAP 50

       1,510.60

    1,597.85

-5.46%
Top Gainers
Symbol Open High Low Last Price Prev. Close % Change
RANBAXY

          249.95

       284.45

         236.25

         279.15

      256.10

        9.00
TATAPOWER

          730.00

       825.00

         671.30

         808.45

      768.10

        5.25
NATIONALUM

          346.40

       385.00

         331.00

         378.25

      361.50

        4.63
MARUTI

          651.00

       698.00

         627.50

         687.85

      672.10

        2.34

 

 

 

 

 

 
Top Losers
Symbol Open High Low Last Price Prev. Close % Change
SUZLON

          120.00

       120.00

         100.05

         113.20

      124.35

       (8.97)
ZEEL

          188.00

       189.00

         155.15

         176.20

      192.95

       (8.68)
BPCL

          374.00

       374.00

         333.35

         342.10

      373.95

       (8.52)
SIEMENS

          351.00

       351.00

         319.20

         327.80

      358.25

       (8.50)
WIPRO

          304.10

       304.10

         265.90

         282.75

      308.30

       (8.29)
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Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Market 6th Oct 2008, Rupee depreciated to trade at INR 47.80 against the dollar

 Market in a nutshell

  • Dragged down by weak global cues, the indices opened deep in the red and slipped unabatedly as the session progressed. The downward slide continued as intense selling activity was witnessed across all sectors. After hitting a two year low, Sensex finally closed at 11,801 (down 724 points), while Nifty ended the day at 3,602(down 216 points).
  • Nifty October futures were trading at a premium of around 15-18 points to spot for the major part of the session.
  • BSE Realty Index plummeted 10% to 3,000 with HDIL falling 15% to INR 139 and BSE Metal Index crashed 9.3% to 7,636 with Sterlite Industries falling 15.2% to INR 335.
  • Market breadth was negative with an Advance: Decline Ratio of 1:15. Aban was down 18% to INR 1,456 while RelInfra fell 15% to INR 636.3.
  • Cash volumes were at INR 143,589 mn (NSE+BSE) as against a 5 DMA of INR 169,763 mn. F&O volumes were at INR 468,532 mn as against a 5 DMA of INR 498,938 mn.

Eye Catchers

  • Praj Industries plunged 19% to INR 93.2 with volumes of 3,797,854 (up 172%).

Market News

  • Rupee depreciated to trade at INR 47.80 against the dollar on worries of capital outflow by foreign funds to melting stock markets.
  • Nymex crude fell to trade at $90.20/bbl. Base metals were trading on a positive note.

Indices performance

CURRENT PREV. %CHANGE
S&P CNX NIFTY

       3,602.35

    3,818.30

-5.66%
CNX NIFTY JUNIOR

       5,513.90

    5,887.40

-6.34%
CNX IT

       2,912.70

    3,106.55

-6.24%
BANK NIFTY

       5,560.55

    5,793.35

-4.02%
CNX 100

       3,407.10

    3,615.00

-5.75%
S&P CNX DEFTY

       2,615.15

    2,811.70

-6.99%
S&P CNX 500

       2,809.35

    2,984.30

-5.86%
CNX MIDCAP

       4,515.45

    4,795.35

-5.84%
NIFTY MIDCAP 50

       1,622.40

    1,744.50

-7.00%
Top Gainers
Symbol Open High Low Last Price Prev. Close % Change
TATACOMM

          448.85

       467.50

         418.25

         461.45

      450.95

        2.33
BPCL

          378.00

       382.90

         371.50

         379.80

      372.65

        1.92
GAIL

          250.00

       267.00

         248.00

         251.85

      393.80

        0.74
Top Losers
Symbol Open High Low Last Price Prev. Close % Change
STER

          386.00

       389.00

         330.20

         335.50

      396.80

     (15.45)
RELINFRA

          728.60

       728.70

         626.00

         636.30

      740.65

     (14.09)
SUZLON

          144.80

       144.80

         125.00

         126.95

      147.30

     (13.82)
DRREDDY

          539.90

       539.90

         470.05

         475.75

      550.10

     (13.52)
CAIRN

          195.00

       195.00

         169.05

         175.05

      197.00

     (11.14)
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Thursday, October 2, 2008
Market 1st Oct 2008, BSE IT Index surged 4% and BSE Bankex Index rose around 3.2%

  Market in a nutshell

  • After a firm start, markets slipped in the red in early trades. Alternate bouts of buying and selling were witnessed through the day with BSE Sensex finally closing at 13,055 (up 195 points), while Nifty ended the day at 3,950 (up 29 points).
  • Nifty October futures were trading at a premium of around 10 points to spot for the first part of the session but expanded to around 20 points towards the end of the session.
  • BSE IT Index surged 4% to 3,218 with Satyam rising 7.5% to INR 319 and BSE Bankex Index rose around 3.2% to 6,688 with HDFC Bank climbing 5.5% to INR 1294
  • Market breadth was positive with an Advance: Decline Ratio of 1.5:1. JP Associates rose 7.5% to INR 119, while TVS Motors was up 10% to INR 36.
  • Cash volumes were at INR 151,520 mn (NSE+BSE) as against a 5 DMA of INR 179,133 mn. F&O volumes were at INR 477,338 mn as against a 5 DMA of INR 613,003 mn.

Eye Catchers

  • GE Shipping rose 4% to INR 315 with volumes of 787,230 (up 270%).

Market News

  • Rupee appreciated to trade at INR 46.72 against the dollar.
  • Nymex crude rose to trade at $100.99/bbl. Base metals were trading on a weak note.

  

Indices performance

CURRENT PREV. %CHANGE
S&P CNX NIFTY

       3,950.75

    3,921.20

0.75%
CNX NIFTY JUNIOR

       6,105.70

    6,043.15

1.04%
CNX IT

       3,193.05

    3,107.05

2.77%
BANK NIFTY

       5,982.40

    5,803.55

3.08%
CNX 100

       3,741.60

    3,712.15

0.79%
S&P CNX DEFTY

       2,927.60

    2,924.45

0.11%
S&P CNX 500

       3,082.80

    3,058.60

0.79%
CNX MIDCAP

       4,929.95

    4,890.70

0.80%
NIFTY MIDCAP 50

       1,804.55

    1,792.35

0.68%
Top Gainers
Symbol Open High Low Last Price Prev. Close % Change
SATYAMCOMP

          305.00

       324.65

         301.00

         318.95

      297.85

        7.08
HCLTECH

          196.50

       209.90

         192.05

         205.80

      194.45

        5.84
HDFCBANK

       1,238.00

    1,305.00

      1,211.40

      1,295.25

   1,229.70

        5.33
GRASIM

       1,700.10

    1,792.30

      1,690.00

      1,767.90

   1,687.80

        4.75
TATAPOWER

          920.00

       958.95

         900.00

         949.35

      907.15

        4.65

 

 

 

 

 

 
Top Losers
Symbol Open High Low Last Price Prev. Close % Change
SAIL

          127.00

       129.60

         122.60

         123.45

      127.70

       (3.33)
LT

       1,249.90

    1,280.00

      1,152.60

      1,216.10

   2,446.40

       (2.70)
RPL

          144.10

       144.65

         139.65

         140.25

      143.50

       (2.26)
RELIANCE

       1,960.00

    1,963.00

      1,883.45

      1,906.70

   1,949.35

       (2.19)
DLF

          354.95

       364.95

         342.25

         345.30

      352.65

       (2.08)