A1FS Views

Market in a nutshell

• Markets opened on a nervous note, trading close to yesterday’s close till noon. However afternoon trades witnessed selling pressure which intensified in the last half hour dragging the broader indices down. Sensex finally closed at 16,316 (down 209 points) while Nifty ended the day at 4,835 (down 83 points).
• Yes, it was the expiry effect that brought the Nifty Index to the 4835 levels. Aggressive selling was witnessed in the last 30 min of the trading hour. Heavy weights like Reliance, ONGC and SBI got hammered in the VWAP that resulted in the Nifty index to touch the low of 4800 during the last 30 mins.
• BSE Auto Index and Bankex both declined around 3% to 4,410 and 7719 respectively. Tata Motors plunged 8% to INR 583, while ICICI Bank was down 3% to INR 797.
• Nifty June Futures were trading at a discount of 10 points to spot for the first half of the session, which increased to 15 points during the last hour.
• Market breadth was marginally negative with an Advance: Decline Ratio of 3:5. M&M declined 5.5% to INR 606, while Purvankara was down 4% to INR 225.
• Cash volumes were at INR 244,038 mn (NSE+BSE) as against a 5 DMA of INR 178,202 mn. F&O volumes were high due to expiry at INR 647,590 mn as against a 5 DMA of INR 473,600 mn.

Eye Catchers

• Larsen and Toubro surged 6.5% to INR 2,882 with volumes of 9,537,163 (up 460%).
• IFCI advanced 6.5% to INR 62 with volumes of 272,473,307 (up 250%),

Market News

• Rupee was trading at INR 42.88 against the dollar.
• Nymex crude rose to trade at $130.31/ bbl. Base metals were trading on a soft note, with zinc leading the pack of losers down 1.5%.

Indices Performance

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Market in a nutshell

• Markets opened on a cautious note and remained dull till noon. Afternoon trades saw a sudden surge in buying activity leading the Sensex to close at 16,525 (up 250 points) while Nifty ended the day at 4,918 (up 59 points). Metal, IT and cement stocks witnessed buying interest while certain engineering stocks declined.
• Market wide rollovers picked up today with 62% of positions getting rolled, but the roll cost (cost to the long roller) stays under pressure at 60-65bps. Good amount of rolls with low roll cost indicates the skepticism in the market for the next month. Positions are being carried forwarded but with lesser conviction.
• On the other hand Nifty witnessed strong rollovers (57%) with the roll cost (cost to the short roller) expanding to 20 points as against par to 5 points two days back. The expanding roll cost shows the aggression of the short rollers and the need to carry Nifty shorts in the next series as a hedge to the long portfolio.
• BSE FMCG Index marched ahead 4% to 2,444, with ITC up 6% to INR 222. BSE IT Index gained 2.5% to 4,566, with Mphasis gaining 10% to INR 251.
• Nifty May Futures were trading at a discount of 10 points to spot for the first half of the session, which moved to a premium of 10 points during the second half.
• Market breadth was marginally positive with an Advance: Decline Ratio of 1.2:1. Chambal Fertlisers continued its upward rally to INR 89 (up 16%), while Crompton Greaves lost 6% to INR 230.
• Cash volumes were at INR 188,188 mn (NSE+BSE) as against a 5 DMA of INR 185,382 mn. F&O volumes were at INR 563,337 mn as against a 5 DMA of INR 439,895 mn.

Eye Catchers

• Mphasis surged 10% to INR 251 with volumes of 1,856,860 (up 275%).
• Tata Chemicals gained 8% to INR 410 with volumes of 3,803,740 (up 340%),

Market News

• Rupee strengthened to trade at INR 42.85 against the dollar, due to abated dollar demand amidst easing crude prices.
• Nymex crude softened to trade at $127.05/ bbl. Base metals were trading on a mixed note, with lead up 2%.
• Call rates were at 7.25-7.5%.

Indices Performance

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Market in a nutshell

• Markets opened on a positive note and remained in the green during morning trades. However, afternoon trades saw a trend reversal as the broader indices declined till close. Sensex finally closed at 16,276 (down 73 points) while Nifty closed at 4,860 (down 15 points). Select IT stocks bucked the trend and ended positive.
• BSE Bankex suffered the most down 2.5% to 7,755, with SBI shedding 4% to INR 1,473. BSE Realty Index declined 1.5% to 7,226, with Unitech falling 4% to INR 249.
• Nifty May Futures were trading at a discount of 7-10 points to spot for major part of the session, which increased to 15 points during the last hour.
• Market breadth was negative with an Advance: Decline Ratio of 2:5. Bank of Baroda retreated 5% to INR 262, while Aban advanced 5% to INR 4,063.
• Cash volumes were low at INR 115,694 mn (NSE) as against a 5 DMA of INR 133,257 mn. F&O volumes were at INR 499,685 mn as against a 5 DMA of INR 406,539 mn.

Eye Catchers

• Chambal Fertilisers gained 6.5% to INR 76 with volumes of 83,410,568 (up 250%).
• Indian Overseas Bank lost 5% to INR 124 with volumes of 1,319,347 (up 300%),

Market News

• Rupee depreciated to trade at INR 42.92 against the dollar, due to dollar demand amidst rising crude prices.
• Nymex crude was steady at $133.17/ bbl. Base metals were trading on a mixed note, with zinc up 2%.

Indices Performance

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Market in a nutshell

• Tracking global cues, local bourses opened weak and remained at the low levels throughout the session. Selling pressure was witnessed across all sectors, however few IT stocks gained. Sensex finally closed at 16,349 (down 300 points) while Nifty ended the day at 4,875 (down 71 points).
• Nifty witnessed strong rollover with 39% of the positions getting rolled on D-3 of expiry day. As the market shows a negative bias, short Nifty (hedge) positions are getting rolled aggressive with the roll cost of 3-5 points (cost to the short roller). We expect the roll cost to widen further on the back of aggressive short positions in Nifty getting rolled towards the expiry day.
• On the Single stock futures (SSF) the rollover is being lack luster with 29% of the positions getting rolled but at a low roll cost of 55-60 bps (cost to the long roller). The low roll cost indicates lack of aggression from the short rollers. We expect this roll cost in SSF to hover round the same levels of 55-65 levels.
• BSE Bankex plunged 3.5% to 7,939, with ICICI Bank falling over 4% to INR 827. BSE Capital Goods lost 3% to 12,834, with BHEL down 5% to INR 1,656.
• Nifty May Futures were trading at a discount of 7-10 points to spot for major part of the session.
• Market breadth was extremely poor with an Advance: Decline Ratio of 1:6. Bajaj Hindustan tumbled 9% to INR 199, while IVRCL Infrastructure fell 7% to INR 382.
• Cash volumes were low at INR 158,598mn (NSE+BSE) as against a 5 DMA of INR 198,647mn. F&O volumes were at INR 441,035mn as against a 5 DMA of INR 394,086mn.

Eye Catchers

• Glaxo Smithkline was up 5% to INR 1,130 with volumes of 176,186 (up 340%).
• Patel Engineering declined 7% to INR 498 with volumes of 223,653 (up 480%),

Market News

• Rupee was steady at INR 42.73 against the dollar.
• Nymex crude rose to trade at $133.3/ bbl. Base metals were trading on a mixed note, with zinc up 2%.

Indices Performance

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Market in a nutshell

• Markets opened slightly positive but could not sustain in the green region for long. Selling was witnessed across the board with the heavy weight getting hammered through out the day. Fresh short positions entered as Nifty broke the 5000 levels in futures, which was clearly witnessed by the expanding discount and huge addition of open interest (OI) in the Nifty futures.
• OI of nearly 7.5% increased in Nifty Futures. Nifty May Futures were trading at a discount of 10-15 points to spot towards the end of the day. Nifty finally ended the day at 4,947 (down 79 points) while Sensex closed at 16,650 (down 257 points)
• BSE Realty Index tumbled 2.5% to 7,510, with Peninsula Land down 3.5% to INR 90. BSE Oil and Gas Index declined 2% 10,975 with Cairn falling 4% to INR 306.
• Market breadth was negative with an Advance: Decline Ratio of 1:3. Air Deccan and Hind Zinc were both down around 6% to INR 128 and INR 678 respectively.
• Cash volumes were at INR 181,089mn (NSE+BSE) as against a 5 DMA of INR 203,086 mn. F&O volumes were at INR 413,180 mn as against a 5 DMA of INR 387,842mn.

Eye Catchers

• Nicholas Piramal climbed 3% to INR 358 with volumes of 438,126 (up 360%),

Market News

• Rupee strengthened to trade at INR 42.71 against the greenback.
• Nymex crude eased to trade at $132.29/ bbl. Base metals were trading weak, with lead leading the pack of losers down 6.5%.
• Inflation remained stable at 7.82% for the week ended May 10.
• Infrastructure firm Era Infra Engineering bagged contracts worth INR 835 mn from Sahara India Commercial Corporation for construction related works in Jaipur and Gwalior.

Indices Performance